Work Package 6‎ > ‎Task 6.1‎ > ‎

Brief reports

September 2009

The work on task 6.1 is proceeding as expected. The initial work on identifying and systematising resent development on Harvest Control Rules (HCR) in fisheries management has been carried out through different initiatives. Arne Eide gave on September 14 a talk in the Norwegian Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs, presenting the resent development of new management tools and the potential these tools in adapting to climate change and new management strategies. Eide also attended a workshop at Oslo Center for Interdisciplinary Environmental and Social Research (CIENS), “Modelling coupled social-ecological responses to climate variability and change in Arctic marine systems”, presenting current modelling tools available in fisheries management. Finally the second workshop of FimaGlow, including all partners of WP6 took place in Stockholm in mid September, covering the Nordic challenges within fisheries management in the case of global warming.

Task 6.1 includes development of new models feasible of including the new management strategies. The modelling work has been started and will continue this year and the year to come.

January 2010

This task is carried out as a modelling experiment based on scenario modelling. The first part of the task therefore includes the development of a suitable scenario model for testing out the properties of different management regimes.

A 2D cellular automata (CA) model will be used as scenario model for the task. The theoretical framework of the model is an extension of a 1D model developed for studying the effect of MPA (Eide, 2009). The 2D CA model has a continuous state variable and varying neighbourhood patterns. The complete model is yet not formulated.

As a part of the ATP collaboration Arne Eide (Norwegian College of Fishery Science) is since January 2010 visiting professor at IMEDEA, another ATP partner. During his stay there he is giving a seminar series in cellular automata modelling.

April 2010

A 26 x 26 grid placed into the reserach area (Barents Sea). The red dashed lines indicate the different Economic Exclusive Zones (EEZs) in the area.
   
Example of Moore neighbourhood of range 2 displaying different diffusion values. The example refers to 12 months of different distribution.
The 2D model has been further prepared, establishing different layers including topography (in a co-ordinate system), varying growth capacities (which link towards the SinMod model) and seasonal changes in migratory behaviour.

Biological impacts of climate change are in the model expressed by changes in (1) geographical distribution of fish species and primary production and (2) changes in growth rates. The first may include changes in environmental capacity levels.

Economic impacts follow from the ecosystem changes. In addition climate change initiated shifts in demand for seafood products may occur. Prices on input factors in production may also change. The effect of these changes depends also on the changes in the biological system.

Deliverable 6.1 (Project document on the use of indicators in HCR, adaptive management, fuzzy logic and prognosis by the use of cellular automata) is in pipe line and will be finished next month. Some of the ideas will be presented on an International Conference on Marine Ecosystem Management in Ilulissat (Greenland) in May 2010.